Authors' Mistakes #32 - Lee Child

I thought I would never write again about authors' mistakes. But I just finished reading a book that really annoyed me:


On page 118 of my Australian edition (ISBN 978-0-553-82554-1), Lee Child writes:

Would Susan Turner get a new Lawyer that afternoon? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. Like heads or tails, like flipping a coin. Then: Would that new lawyer be a white male? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. And then: Would first Major Sullivan or subsequently Captain Edmonds be in the buolding at the same time as Susan Turner's new lawyer? Assuming she got one? Answer: either yes or no. Fifty-fifty. And finally: Would all three lawyers have come in through the same gate as each other? Answer: yes or no. Fifty-fifty.
Four yes-no answers, each one of them a separate event all its own. Each one of them a perfect fifty-fifty chance in its own right. But four correct answers in a row were six-in-a-hundred improbability.

The only correct statement in these two paragraphs is that if you toss four times a coin you have a six-in-a-hundred probability of getting four heads or four tails (actually, 6.25%, but let's not be too fussy!)

All the rest is nonsense because the fact that there are two alternatives doesn't mean that they are equally probable. Child's misconception is that if you don't have enough information about two mutually-exclusive events you can assign to them equal probability.

It is a frequent misconception, but it is appalling that an author like Lee Child holds it and reinforces it in his millions of readers. When you are so famous, you have the responsibility of not stating bullshit.

And he restates the same misconception several times throughout the novel. For example, on page 465 he writes:

'It's always fifty-fifty, Pete. Like tossing a coin. Either I'm wrong, or I'm right, either you bring us back, or you don't, either Deputy Chiefs are what they say they are, or they're not. Always fifty-fifty. One thing or the other is always true.'

You can express most situations in terms of mutually exclusive alternatives, but that says nothing about the probability of either of them occurring. For example, when you go for a walk, either you are hit by a lightning or you are not. That certainly doesn't mean that the probability of being hit by a lightning is fifty-fifty!

According to Child, as Reacher says on page 480, 'Fifty-fifty, [...] like everything else in the world.'

As I said, it is appalling.

For your reference, here are the links to all past “Authors’ Mistakes” articles:
Lee Child: Personal
Lee Child: Die Trying
Colin Forbes: Double Jeopardy
Akiva Goldsman: Lost in Space
Vince Flynn: Extreme Measures
Máire Messenger Davies & Nick Mosdell: Practical Research Methods for Media and Cultural Studies
Michael Crichton & Richard Preston: Micro
Lee Child: The Visitor
Graham Tattersall: Geekspeak
Graham Tattersall: Geekspeak (addendum)
Donna Leon: A Noble Radiance
007 Tomorrow Never Dies
Vince Flynn: American Assassin
Brian Green: The Fabric of the Cosmos
John Stack: Master of Rome
Dean Crawford: pocalypse
Daniel Silva: The Fallen Angel
Tom Clancy: Locked On
Peter David: After Earth
Douglas Preston: Impact
Brian Christian: The Most Human Human
Donna Leon: Fatal Remedies
Sidney Sheldon: Tell Me Your Dreams
David Baldacci: Zero Day
Sidney Sheldon: The Doomsday Conspiracy
CSI iami
Christopher L. Bennett: Make Hub, Not War
CSI Miami #2 (Robert Hornak)
Jack Greene & Alessandro Massignani
Peter James
P.Warren & M.Streeter
Nigel Cawthorne